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Consumer: Are Recession Fears Really Scaring Away Consumers?

Not as much as you'd think. During the first quarter of 2008, the U.S. gross domestic product increased by 0.9 percent, beating initial estimates of 0.6 percent, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. And although these numbers may not be comforting, they certainly undermine the pessimism that has lately shadowed the country.

Apparently, the looming recession has hurt, but not crippled consumers. We know today's consumer is not the same as those of the past: now, consumers are younger, more affluent, and better educated. A large portion of those consumers reside in generation Y-those born between 1985 and the present-and are over 90 million and counting, surpassing even Baby Boomers in size.

So how does the makeup of these consumers affect the country's economic outlook? For one, consumers might bounce back at faster speeds than they did during previous economic downturns. According to a Federal Reserve Board survey, in the second half of the year, 3 percent of all families plan to buy a new car, while 3.7 percent will buy a used car. Moreover, 5.8 percent plan to buy a washing machine, 3.9 percent plan to purchase a refrigerator, and 3.9 percent will buy a new TV set (perhaps anticipating the digital television transition on February 17, 2009).

Despite the fact that the economy remains shaky, consumer confidence dim, and financial futures uncertain, consumers are still buying beyond Maslow's base hierarchy of needs. Otherwise, how do you explain the momentum behind products like Apple's new iPhone, set to hit stores on July 11th, with conservative projected sales at 10 million. Generation X and Y are prepared to weather long lines (like bread lines) and dig deep into wallets (recession or not), for more than food, shelter, and the new dirty diction of our time-fuel. Smells like recession, sounds like recession, but looks more like a spiraling 'procession.'

The Bush administration's incentives and $100 billion worth of tax rebates was meant to get consumers to spend, and the Treasury has already issued over $78 billion to boost the economy. We may already be seeing the effects of these efforts: the Commerce Department confirmed consumer spending climbed 0.8 percent in May. On the other hand, the University of Michigan also reported that consumer sentiment index fell to 59.8, its lowest point since 1980. What we've got here is a failure to communicate. With these mixed signals, how do we reach our targets effectively?

Marketing to price conscious consumers will take finesse, but they have not yet stashed their wallets and taken to the hills. Dan Seiver, economics professor at San Diego State University, believes, "the consumer is just starting to cut back now after many years of shop till you drop, spend till the end." Consumers may just be recovering from a consumption-induced hangover. Economists expect modest economic growth this year and hope the rebates will spur summer sales.

Consumer spending does account for approximately 70 percent of U.S. GDP, Seiver explains, and how we react in these recessionary times will either drive positive or negative economic growth.

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